Tools

Sequence of returns calculator

The tool withdraws at the start of each year, then applies a fixed list of hypothetical real returns. One path uses that order. The other reverses it. With no withdrawal, the ending balances match. With a withdrawal, early losses finish lower. These returns are an illustration, not market history.

Arc · Published September 18, 2026 · Updated September 18, 2026

Starting portfolioAnnual withdrawalTaken at the start of each year, before that year's return.

Assumptions

Hypothetical real returns, in order: 18%, 12%, 7%, 3%, -2%, -15%, -8%, 4%, 9%, 5%. Not a historical index.
Losses first reverses that list. Set the withdrawal to zero and the two endings match.
Ten years only. A longer retirement can look worse than this sample.

Gains first

$899,736

Larger positive years come first.

Losses first

$813,265

The same returns, reversed.

Solid, Gains first. Dashed, Losses first. Gains first ends at $899,736. Losses first ends at $813,265.

What the two lines are

Both lines use the same ten hypothetical annual returns. Gains first puts the larger positive years at the start. Losses first reverses the list. Nothing here is a historical index, and nothing here is a forecast.

Common questions

Why do the lines match when I set spending to zero?

Multiplication is commutative. Without withdrawals, order does not change the ending balance. The gap appears only when you sell along the way.